{"id":3456,"date":"2016-01-26T13:04:55","date_gmt":"2016-01-26T19:04:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chrissniderdesign.com\/blog\/?p=3456"},"modified":"2016-01-26T13:14:04","modified_gmt":"2016-01-26T19:14:04","slug":"can-facebook-and-twitter-ad-tools-predict-the-iowa-caucus-winner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chrissniderdesign.com\/blog\/2016\/01\/26\/can-facebook-and-twitter-ad-tools-predict-the-iowa-caucus-winner\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Facebook and Twitter ad tools predict the Iowa Caucus winner?"},"content":{"rendered":"

One of my favorite things to discuss in my social media strategies class is how much Facebook and Twitter know about us – or at least think they know about us – based on what we do and say on their social networks.<\/p>\n

With that in mind, I decided to see if I could predict the Iowa Caucus winners based on what Twitter and Facebook know about their Iowa users<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

I went into the ad tool for Facebook<\/a> and Twitter<\/a>, and I searched to see how many Iowans showed an interest in each candidate (well, the top candidates anyway). <\/p>\n

Overall, the ad tools show 1.8 million Iowans on Facebook and 931,000 on Twitter. <\/p>\n

After targeting just Iowa, I choose to target the “interests” to see how many people Twitter and Facebook believe are interested in each candidate. <\/p>\n

On Facebook, a search like that looks like this (showing Donald Trump info):<\/p>\n

\"facebook-trump-supporters\"<\/p>\n

On Twitter, it looks like this (showing Hillary Clinton info):<\/p>\n

\"twitter-clinton-supporters\"<\/p>\n

Here are the results…<\/p>\n

Iowans interested in Dem candidates on Facebook<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rank<\/th>\nCandidate<\/th>\nInterested<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\nBernie Sanders<\/td>\n80,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nHillary Clinton<\/td>\n44,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nMartin O’Malley<\/td>\n9,900<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Iowans interested in GOP candidates on Facebook<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rank<\/th>\nCandidate<\/th>\nInterested<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\nDonald Trump<\/td>\n110,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nBen Carson<\/td>\n100,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nTed Cruz<\/td>\n74,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nMarco Rubio<\/td>\n39,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Iowans interested in Dem candidates on Twitter<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rank<\/th>\nCandidate<\/th>\nInterested<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\nHillary Clinton<\/td>\n161,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nBernie Sanders<\/td>\n90,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nMartin O’Malley<\/td>\n15,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Iowans interested in GOP candidates on Twitter<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rank<\/th>\nCandidate<\/th>\nInterested<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\nDonald Trump<\/td>\n196,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nBen Carson<\/td>\n53,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nMarco Rubio<\/td>\n37,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nTed Cruz<\/td>\n20,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

So…<\/p>\n

Both sites show Donald Trump winning the GOP caucuses. But on the Democratic side, Twitter shows Hillary Clinton winning and Facebook shows Bernie Sanders.<\/p>\n

We will find out which one is right on Feb. 1<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Note: For Twitter, I simply looked at people interested in each candidates main account. For Facebook, I combined multiple interests – for example “hillary clinton” and “hillary rodham clinton.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One of my favorite things to discuss in my social media strategies class is how much Facebook and Twitter know about us – or at least think they know about us – based on what we do and say on their social networks. 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