Can social media predict the 2012 GOP presidential nominee? That’s the question I asked for a recent panel presentation to the National Communication Association at its annual convention in New Orleans.
I proposed that the more popular a candidate is on social media, and the more a candidate is able to engage others on social media, the more successful the candidate will be in caucuses, primaries and the election.
To test this, I looked at 17 different measures of social media success – both in terms of popularity (the amount of reach for each candidate) and engagement (how well candidates used the tools). The results mirrored recent national polls, meaning there may be some value to this data.
Here’s a look at how the candidates rank in each area (all data was from Nov. 13, 2011).
1. Total followers on Twitter
It’s worth noting that Gingrich had 1.3 million followers as far back as March, so his huge following is not necessarily tied to the election.
| Candidates | Followers |
|---|---|
| 1. Newt Gingrich | 1,346,342 |
| 2. Herman Cain | 164,339 |
| 3. Mitt Romney | 161,669 |
| 4. Michele Bachmann | 112,198 |
| 5. Rick Perry | 103,649 |
| 6. Ron Paul | 76,545 |
| 7. Jon Huntsman | 48,858 |
| 8. Rick Santorum | 37,878 |
2. New Twitter followers in the past 30 days
| Candidates | New Followers |
|---|---|
| 1. Herman Cain | 47,434 |
| 2. Mitt Romney | 27,720 |
| 3. Newt Gingrich | 11,835 |
| 4. Michele Bachmann | 8,184 |
| 5. Jon Huntsman | 7,729 |
| 6. Rick Perry | 7,291 |
| 7. Rick Santorum | 5,920 |
| 8. Ron Paul | 5,905 |
3. Facebook Likes
The top three candidates here all started with a solid base. Romney had 800,000-plus as far back as March.
| Candidates | Likes |
|---|---|
| 1. Mitt Romney | 1,175,188 |
| 2. Ron Paul | 582,857 |
| 3. Michele Bachmann | 459,152 |
| 4. Herman Cain | 371,532 |
| 5. Rick Perry | 170,911 |
| 6. Newt Gingrich | 168,031 |
| 7. Rick Santorum | 31,955 |
| 8. Jon Huntsman | 22,814 |
4. New Facebook Likes in past 30 days
| Candidates | New Likes |
|---|---|
| 1. Herman Cain | 99,320 |
| 2. Mitt Romney | 43,229 |
| 3. Ron Paul | 39,321 |
| 4. Newt Gingrich | 15,617 |
| 5. Rick Perry | 3,844 |
| 6. Jon Huntsman | 2,569 |
| 7. Rick Santorum | 1,843 |
| 8. Michele Bachmann | -1,077 |
5. Twitter lists
How often each candidate has been added to a list on Twitter. This is an indication that followers find value in their content.
| Candidates | Listed |
|---|---|
| 1. Newt Gingrich | 10,125 |
| 2. Michele Bachmann | 4,964 |
| 3. Mitt Romney | 4,182 |
| 4. Herman Cain | 3,784 |
| 5. Rick Perry | 3,499 |
| 6. Ron Paul | 3,330 |
| 7. Rick Santorum | 1,498 |
| 8. Jon Huntsman | 1,219 |
6. Twitter Lists/Followers
The frequency with which followers add candidates to Twitter lists. For example, Bachmann is added to a list once for every 22.6 followers that she has. The lower the number the better; a high number may be an indication you are followed by accounts that aren’t really engaged with your content.
| Candidates | Followers/Lists |
|---|---|
| 1. Michele Bachman | 22.6 |
| 2. Ron Paul | 23.0 |
| 3. Rick Santorum | 25.3 |
| 4. Rick Perry | 29.6 |
| 5. Mitt Romney | 38.7 |
| 6. Jon Huntsman | 40.1 |
| 7. Herman Cain | 43.4 |
| 8. Newt Gingrich | 133 |
7. Number of last 20 Tweets with @
This shows that the candidates are actually being “social” on Twitter and not just pushing their message.
| Candidates | Tweets |
|---|---|
| 1. Michele Bachmann | 12 |
| 1. Newt Gingrich | 12 |
| 3. Jon Huntsman | 11 |
| 4. Rick Santorum | 10 |
| 5. Mitt Romney | 7 |
| 6. Rick Perry | 6 |
| 7. Herman Cain | 5 |
| 8. Ron Paul | 0 |
8. Klout score
Klout measures influence online on a scale of 1 to 100.
| Candidates | Score |
|---|---|
| 1. Herman Cain | 82 |
| 2. Rick Perry | 77 |
| 3. Mitt Romney | 76 |
| 4. Jon Huntsman | 71 |
| 5. Newt Gingrich | 70 |
| 6. Michele Bachmann | 67 |
| 7. Rick Santorum | 65 |
| 8. Ron Paul | 61 |
9. Tweetgrader Rank
Tweetgrader measures the “power, reach and authority of a Twitter account.”
| Candidates | Rank |
|---|---|
| 1. Newt Gingrich | 20,303 |
| 2. Herman Cain | 36,321 |
| 3. Rick Perry | 48,240 |
| 4. Rick Santorum | 51,252 |
| 5. Michele Bachmann | 61,184 |
| 6. Mitt Romney | 67,228 |
| 7. Ron Paul | 84,200 |
| 8. Jon Huntsman | 108,558 |
10. Tweetlevel Score
Tweetlevel.edelman.com – Measures your influence on Twitter.
| Candidates | Score |
|---|---|
| 1. Newt Gingrich | 82.8 |
| 2. Herman Cain | 79.7 |
| 3. Michele Bachmann | 70.1 |
| 4. Rick Perry | 69 |
| 5. Rick Santorum | 64.5 |
| 6. Mitt Romney | 62.2 |
| 7. Ron Paul | 55.2 |
| 8. Jon Huntsman | N/A |
11. Retweetrank.com Rank
Measures how likely your tweets are to be retweeted, an indication that people value what you say.
| Candidates | Rank |
|---|---|
| 1. Herman Cain | 13,746 |
| 2. Newt Gingrich | 30,312 |
| 3. Mitt Romney | 43,367 |
| 3. Rick Santorum | 43,367 |
| 5. Rick Perry | 68,823 |
| 6. Ron Paul | 108,000 |
| 7. Jon Huntsman | 108,674 |
| 8. Michele Bachmann | 109,402 |
12. Shares on Last 12 FB Posts
The number of people who clicked “share” on each candidates’ last 12 posts to Facebook.
| Candidates | Shares |
|---|---|
| 1. Herman Cain | 2,882 |
| 2. Newt Gingrich | 2,189 |
| 3. Michele Bachmann | 1,960 |
| 4. Ron Paul | 1,884 |
| 5. Rick Perry | 1,286 |
| 6. Mitt Romney | 891 |
| 7. Jon Huntsman | 262 |
| 8. Rick Santorum | 113 |
13. Likes on Last 12 FB Posts
The number of people who clicked “Like” on each candidates’ last 12 posts to Facebook.
| Candidates | Likes |
|---|---|
| 1. Herman Cain | 56,384 |
| 2. Mitt Romney | 32,756 |
| 3. Michele Bachmann | 20,208 |
| 4. Ron Paul | 17,678 |
| 5. Newt Gingrich | 12,781 |
| 6. Rick Perry | 10,802 |
| 7. Jon Huntsman | 1,667 |
| 8. Rick Santorum | 17,678 |
14. Comments on Last 12 FB Posts
The number of people who commented on each candidates’ last 12 posts to Facebook.
| Candidates | Comments |
|---|---|
| 1. Rick Perry | 13,126 |
| 2. Herman Cain | 7,419 |
| 3. Mitt Romney | 6,980 |
| 4. Michele Bachmann | 5,365 |
| 5. Ron Paul | 3,746 |
| 6. Newt Gingrich | 2,143 |
| 7. Jon Huntsman | 383 |
| 8. Rick Santorum | 129 |
15. Facebook “Talking About This”
Number of people who have interacted with candidate’s page in the past seven days.
| Candidates | Talking |
|---|---|
| 1. Herman Cain | 85,554 |
| 2. Mitt Romney | 52,378 |
| 3. Ron Paul | 49,935 |
| 4. Newt Gingrich | 20,560 |
| 5. Michele Bachmann | 18,426 |
| 6. Rick Perry | 7,871 |
| 7. Rick Santorum | 3,875 |
| 8. Jon Huntsman | 2,593 |
16. Mentions on Twitter Past 7 Days
Source: Topsy.com (Searching a candidate’s Twitter username and real Name)
| Candidates | Mentions |
|---|---|
| 1. Herman Cain | 138,000 |
| 2. Rick Perry | 92,000 |
| 3. Ron Paul | 40,000 |
| 4. Mitt Romney | 26,000 |
| 5. Newt Gingrich | 17,000 |
| 6. Michele Bachmann | 9,059 |
| 7. Jon Huntsman | 3,976 |
| 8. Rick Santorum | 3,095 |
17. Socialmention.com strength
Strength is the likelihood that your brand is being discussed in social media.
| Candidates | Strength |
|---|---|
| 1. Herman Cain | 36% |
| 2. Ron Paul | 33% |
| 3. Rick Perry | 31% |
| 4. Mitt Romney | 27% |
| 4. Newt Gingrich | 27% |
| 6. Michele Bachmann | 26% |
| 7. Jon Huntsman | 20% |
| 8. Rick Santorum | 19% |
Overall results
Each candidate is assigned a value from 1 to 8 based on how they ranked for each area I tracked. The lower the candidate’s average score, the higher they are regarded in social media circles. You can see that Herman Cain is leading the pack with an average rating of 2.29. Newt Gingrich (3.47) and Mitt Romney (3.53) are second and third.
| HC | NG | MR | MB | RPe | RPa | RS | JH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twitter Followers | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| Twitter Followers last month | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| Facebook Likes | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Facebook Likes last month | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Twitter Lists | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Twitter Followers/List | 7 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| Tweets with @ in them | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
| Klout Score | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| Tweetgrader Rank | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| Tweetlevel Score | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| Tweetrank Rank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| Shares of last 20 FB Posts | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 7 |
| Comments of last 20 FB Posts | 2 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Likes of last 20 FB Posts | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 7 |
| Facebook Page “Talking About This” | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Topsy.com mentions last 7 days | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 |
| SocialMention Strength | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Average ranking | 2.29 | 3.47 | 3.53 | 4.24 | 4.29 | 4.94 | 6.41 | 6.65 |
Engagement results
Below is what the results look like when I only look at engagement and not popularity. Rick Perry jumps up two spots in these results. So while he doesn’t have as large of a following as others (he ranks fifth on both Twitter and Facebook), he is engaging well with that audience.
| Candidate | Average Rank |
|---|---|
| 1. Herman Cain | 1.3 |
| 2. Newt Gingrich | 3.5 |
| 3. Rick Perry | 3.7 |
| 4. Mitt Romney | 3.9 |
| 5. Michele Bachmann | 4.9 |
| 6. Ron Paul | 4.9 |
| 7. Rick Santorum | 6.6 |
| 8. Jon Huntsman | 7 |
Comparing to national polls
I decided to compare my results to two national polls released at the same time (Nov. 14) – one from CNN and one from Public Policy Polling. Those two polls had Gingrich, Cain and Romney in the lead. My results had the same three in the lead (although Perry did jump into third place when only looking at engagement).
| Social Media | Avg. | Engagement | Avg. | CNN/ORC | Pub Policy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Cain | 2.29 | 1. Cain | 1.3 | 1. Romney | 24% | 1. Gingrich | 28% |
| 2. Gingrich | 3.47 | 2. Gingrich | 3.5 | 2. Gingrich | 22% | 2. Cain | 25% |
| 3. Romney | 3.53 | 3. Perry | 3.7 | 3. Cain | 14% | 3. Romney | 18% |
| 4. Bachman | 4.24 | 4. Romney | 3.9 | 4. Perry | 12% | 4. Perry | 6% |
| 5. Perry | 4.29 | 5. Bachmann | 4.9 | 5. Paul | 8% | 5. Bachmann | 5% |
| 6. Paul | 4.94 | 6. Paul | 4.9 | 6. Bachmann | 6% | 6. Paul | 5% |
| 7. Santorum | 6.41 | 7. Santorum | 6.6 | 7. Huntsman | 3% | 7. Huntsman | 3% |
| 8. Huntsman | 6.65 | 8. Huntsman | 7 | 8. Santorum | 3% | 8. Santorum | 1% |
Discussion
Early results indicate that measuring social media popularity and engagement is a good indication of how a candidate is performing nationally. I plan to look at these numbers again in early December and on the date (Jan. 3) of the Iowa Caucuses.
If we see a change in the national polls reflected in the social media numbers, that may help validate my research.
It’s also hard to say at this point whether a candidate’s success in social media propels them to success in the polls, or whether a candidate’s success in the polls propels them to social media success (the chicken and the egg debate). But clearly social media is an area that no candidate can afford to ignore.
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