One of my favorite things to discuss in my social media strategies class is how much Facebook and Twitter know about us – or at least think they know about us – based on what we do and say on their social networks.
With that in mind, I decided to see if I could predict the Iowa Caucus winners based on what Twitter and Facebook know about their Iowa users.
I went into the ad tool for Facebook and Twitter, and I searched to see how many Iowans showed an interest in each candidate (well, the top candidates anyway).
Overall, the ad tools show 1.8 million Iowans on Facebook and 931,000 on Twitter.
After targeting just Iowa, I choose to target the “interests” to see how many people Twitter and Facebook believe are interested in each candidate.
On Facebook, a search like that looks like this (showing Donald Trump info):
On Twitter, it looks like this (showing Hillary Clinton info):
Here are the results…
Iowans interested in Dem candidates on Facebook
| Rank | Candidate | Interested |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bernie Sanders | 80,000 |
| 2 | Hillary Clinton | 44,000 |
| 3 | Martin O’Malley | 9,900 |
Iowans interested in GOP candidates on Facebook
| Rank | Candidate | Interested |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donald Trump | 110,000 |
| 2 | Ben Carson | 100,000 |
| 3 | Ted Cruz | 74,000 |
| 4 | Marco Rubio | 39,000 |
Iowans interested in Dem candidates on Twitter
| Rank | Candidate | Interested |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hillary Clinton | 161,000 |
| 2 | Bernie Sanders | 90,000 |
| 3 | Martin O’Malley | 15,000 |
Iowans interested in GOP candidates on Twitter
| Rank | Candidate | Interested |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donald Trump | 196,000 |
| 2 | Ben Carson | 53,000 |
| 3 | Marco Rubio | 37,000 |
| 4 | Ted Cruz | 20,000 |
So…
Both sites show Donald Trump winning the GOP caucuses. But on the Democratic side, Twitter shows Hillary Clinton winning and Facebook shows Bernie Sanders.
We will find out which one is right on Feb. 1.
Note: For Twitter, I simply looked at people interested in each candidates main account. For Facebook, I combined multiple interests – for example “hillary clinton” and “hillary rodham clinton.”
Super interesting, Chris!