Social media numbers show Gingrich, Romney and Paul neck-and-neck in Iowa
27 Dec
It’s one week before the Iowa caucuses, and my latest numbers on GOP candidates and social media show it’s a three-way race between Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.
I’m tracking 17 different indicators of how popular candidates are on social media and how effectively they are using social media in their campaigns. This is the third time I’ve looked at the numbers. See the numbers from Nov. 13 and from Dec. 7.
Here are the current (Dec. 27) results. The average rank is how high the candidate ranked, on average, in each of the 17 different indicators (an average of 1 would mean they were first in every category; an average of 7 would mean they were last).
| Dec. 27 | Candidate | Average Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mitt Romney | 2.76 |
| 2 | Newt Gingrich | 2.71 |
| 3 | Ron Paul | 3.12 |
| 4 | Michele Bachmann | 4.18 |
| 5 | Rick Perry | 4.29 |
| 6 | Rick Santorum | 4.88 |
| 7 | Jon Huntsman | 5.82 |
My previous numbers mirrored what was happening in national polls, and these ones appear to as well. Polls show Ron Paul gaining momentum heading into Iowa. In my numbers, he has jumped from fifth (Nov. 13 – ignoring Herman Cain, who is now out of the race) to fourth (Dec. 7) and now to third. More importantly, he’s neck-and-neck with the frontrunners.
Gingrich was first and Romney second in the previous two polls.
Here are rankings for each category:
| Newt Gingrich | Mitt Romney | Ron Paul | Michele Bachmann | Rick Perry | Rick Santorum | Jon Huntsman | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twitter followers | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| Twitter followers in last month | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| Facebook likes | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Facebook likes in last month | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Twitter lists | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| Twitter followers/lists ratio | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| # of last 20 tweets with @ in them | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2 |
| Klout score | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Tweetgrader rank | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| tweetlevel.edelman.com score | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| retweetrank.com | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
| Shares of last 12 FB posts | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| Comments on last 12 FB posts | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| Likes on last 12 FB posts | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| FB “Talking about this” | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Topsy.com tweets in last 7 days mentioning username or Real Name | 3 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| SocialMention Strength | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| Average | 2.71 | 2.76 | 3.12 | 4.18 | 4.29 | 4.88 | 5.82 |
Here are the indicators I am tracking (read more on my original post):
- Twitter followers in last month
- Facebook likes
- Facebook likes in last month
- Twitter lists
- Twitter followers/lists ratio
- # of last 20 tweets with @ in them
- Klout.com score
- Tweetgrader.com rank
- tweetlevel.edelman.com score
- retweetrank.com score
- Shares of last 12 FB posts
- Comments on last 12 FB posts
- Likes on last 12 FB posts
- Facebook “Talking about this” number
- Topsy.com tweets in last 7 days mentioning username or Real Name
- SocialMention.com Strength
If you are interested in interviewing me about these numbers, contact me at chris.snider@drake.edu.
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